Apart from Group H, there is one more match to play and that means for all groups based in New Zealand, those final matches will be on at 2am CT. For those in Australia, all but one set will kickoff at 5am CT (Group D’s will kick off Tuesday at 6am CT). It’s time to sort out who needs what and how to advance starting alphabetically.
Group A’s final matches will be sandwiched in between the South Korea-Morocco and Germany-Colombia matches. Thus, we’re starting here.
GROUP A:
July 30th, 2am CT:
Norway vs. Philippines, Auckland, FS1/NBC Universo
Switzerland vs. New Zealand, Dunedin, Fox/Telemundo
Switzerland lead on four points and just need a draw to advance to the Round of 16 regardless of what happens at Eden Park. A win will give them the group.
For New Zealand in second place on three points and an even goal difference, a win will guarantee passage. A draw will only be enough if the match at Eden Park ends in a draw (the Football Ferns having a superior goal difference on the Filipinos) or if Norway win that leaves goals scored and goal difference identical which would favor New Zealand due to head-to-head.
The Philippines are in third on three points and -1 goal difference. A win will see them in the Round of 16. A draw will not be enough unless New Zealand loses. A Filipino win will lead to topping the group if the Swiss fail to defat the Ferns.
Norway, who will be without Ada Hegerberg, need a win and help from Switzerland to advance. That help would need to come in the form of either a Swiss win, a loss causing a swing of 3+ goals in goal difference, or a draw in Dunedin–though Norway would have to win by 2+ goals.
GROUP B:
July 31st, 5am CT:
Republic of Ireland vs. Nigeria, Brisbane, FS1/NBC Universo
Canada vs. Australia, Melbourne, Fox/Telemundo
Nigeria just needs a draw to advance. Should they lose to the Irish, they would be eliminated if they lose by a bigger margin than Canada does against Australia or by 2+ goals if the match in Melbourne ends in a draw.
A draw is enough for Canada to advance as well, but a loss will eliminate them if Nigeria get at least a point or if Nigeria’s loss is of equal or lesser margin in Brisbane.
Sam Kerr has declared herself fit for Tuesday’s match against Canada. How much of an impact she will make will remain to be seen, but what is clear is that the Matildas need a win to advance. A draw is only enough if Nigeria lose to 2+ goals to the already eliminated Irish.
GROUP C:
July 31st, 2am CT:
Costa Rica vs. Zambia, Hamilton, FS1/NBC Universo
Japan vs. Spain, Wellington, Fox/Telemundo
Both Japan and Spain have punched their tickets to the Round of 16. The winner of the match in Wellington will go through as group winners. A draw would see Spain top. The Ticas and Zambia are merely playing to see if they can get their first World Cup win.
GROUP D:
August 1st, 6am CT:
Haiti vs. Denmark, Perth, FS1/NBC Universo
China PR vs. England, Adelaide, Fox/Telemundo
England need just a draw against China to advance and it would also win the group. The only way England would be eliminated is if they lose by 2+ goals and if Denmark makes up the goal difference in a win over Haiti.
Denmark need to match or better China’s result to advance. If both Denmark and China lose, Haiti would advance if they beat the Danes and make up the goal difference against either team. If both Denmark and China draw by the same scoreline, it would be advantage Denmark on head-to-head.
GROUP E:
August 1st, 2am CT:
Vietnam vs. Netherlands, Dunedin, FS1/NBC Universo
Portugal vs. USA, Auckland, Fox/Telemundo
Both the Dutch and USA will advance if they avoid defeat. The USA currently have the top spot on goal difference.
Portugal will advance if they defeat the USA. The USA would then be eliminated if already eliminated Vietnam also fail to defeat the Dutch.
GROUP F:
August 2nd, 5am CT:
Jamaica vs. Brazil, Melbourne, FS1/NBC Universo
Panama vs. France, Sydney, Fox/Telemundo
France will advance with a draw and win the group with a win.
Jamaica can eliminate Brazil if they avoid defeat.
Brazil will advance with a win over Jamaica or a draw if France loses against already eliminated Panama.
GROUP G:
August 2nd, 2am CT:
South Africa vs. Italy, Wellington, FS1/NBC Universo
Argentina vs. Sweden, Hamilton, Fox/Telemundo
Sweden are already through after their emphatic victory over Italy. A draw will give them the group.
Italy will advance if they defeat South Africa, or if they draw and Argentina fail to defeat Sweden.
Both Argentina and South Africa need wins to advance. At present, South Africa has scored more goals (two) than Argentina (one), thus Argentina would likely need to win by a greater margin.
GROUP H:
August 3rd, 5am CT:
Morocco vs. Colombia, Perth, FS1/NBC Universo
Korea Republic vs. Germany, Brisbane, Fox/Telemundo
The winner of the Germany-Colombia match will advance on Sunday if the Korea Repubic-Morocco match ends in a draw. The loser of the Korea Republic-Morocco match will be eliminated if the Germany-Colombia match ends in a draw. More will be known after Sunday.
At the time of this post, just three teams have sealed their place in the Round of 16. Five teams have been eliminated. Both co-hosts, the defending Olympic Champion, the two-time defending World Champion, and others such as Brazil, England, and France are all susceptible to being eliminated. It’s going to make for a bumpy next few days. Manage your sleep well and use discretion when following the matches be it at home or elsewhere.
