Clint Dempsey is the USMNT’s most well rounded striker, but who should partner him up-front?
Surprise.
That’s the emotion that many U.S. Men’s National Team fans were feeling when Jurgen Klinsmann released his provisional 35 man squad for this summer’s CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Veterans mixed with rookies, mixed with college players; it’s a mixed bunch that’s for sure. Jordan Morris’ inclusion is sure to ruffle feathers with more seasoned, professional players.
Some of the most surprising inclusions on the 35 man roster came with veterans. Geoff Cameron was left out, DaMarcus Beasley came out of retirement to be named in the squad, Houston Dynamo captain Brad Davis made the cut, as apparent super-sub Alan Gordon of the LA Galaxy.
The message Jurgen Klinsmann has repeatedly transmitted is that players who challenge themselves will get more chances. On paper it does make sense; DeAndre Yedlin will have to push himself harder than Kofi Sarkodie would to become a first team regular at Tottenham versus at Houston Dynamo, but is it really a fair way of picking the team.
Prost-Amerika’s Scott Nicholls analyzed over 70 American players to see what the 35 man — and 23 man — roster would look like if Klinsmann selected the United States Men’s National team solely on recent form. The players analyzed were recently called up ones, veteran ones, and even included players whom have never played for the national side.
Each players’ rating was “averaged” from information gathered from three different statistics websites. Aside from goalkeepers and strikers where every player was included in the pool, the top 10 fullbacks, central defenders, wingers, and central midfielders were rated. All players had specific statistical categories that pertained to their positions and were ranked as follows.
All stats are per ninety minutes.
GKs:
10
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
Fullbacks, Central Defenders, Wingers, Central Midfielders:
10
7
5
4
3
1
-1
-3
-4
-5
Strikers
10
7
5
4
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Right off the bat one thing was clear. Nobody — veteran or not — was safe of the ratings drop off zone. There were surprise inclusions at every position, and surprise dropouts at every position, too.
Goalkeepers:
Original Squad: Hamid, Yarbrough, Guzan, Rimando.
The goalkeeper situation is pretty solid in the USMNT camp. All four aforementioned ‘keepers are solid for club and country (except maybe Brad Guzan who underwhelms at every opportunity) and there were no real surprises in this section for Klinsmann’s actual selection.
Prost-Amerika’s Power-Ranking Adjustments:
Categories: Clean sheets, saves per goal, distribution accuracy, saves, catches, punches.
Yarbrough +47
Hamid +41
Rimando +33
Howard +22
If form were the only indicator in play it would look like its time for young William Yarbrough to be handed the reigns to the USMNT’s number 1 jersey. Yarbrough averages more saves per 90 (2.53) than any of the four finalists, but also managed to have one of the best saves per goal ratios at 2.45 per 90. The only player better? Bill Hamid at 2.90. Yarbrough also had a significantly better distribution accuracy at 76%, his closes challenger was Tim Howard at 66%
As the Gold Cup need not be won necessarily (it would help, though) for the USMNT to qualify for the Confederations Cup now may be the time. Yarbrough has impressed in Mexico and has looked solid for the national team when called upon. Guzman drops out.
Stand-by: Guzan. Nobody else in the ‘keeper pool was anywhere close to the four finalists (Tyler Deric, Sean Johnson)
Fullbacks:
Original Squad: DaMarcus Beasley, Timothy Chandler, Greg Garza, Tim Ream, Brek Shea, DeAndre Yedlin.
Prost-Amerika’s Power-Ranking Adjustments:
Categories: Interceptions, clearances, tackles won, successful take-ons, pass completion, chances created
Jeb Brovsky +26
Sean Franklin +21
Jorge Villafana +15
London Woodberry +13
Timmy Chandler +9
Greg Garza +9
Barring Garza and Chandler, Brovsky, Franklin, Villafana, and Woodberry have one men’s national team appearance between them — that belongs to Franklin in 2011. Almost all of the original fullbacks have been left out barring the USMNT’s starting left and right backs, however, they’re not the most “in-form.”
It might surprise you to know that the top ranked fullback on form (Brovsky) actually started in the ratings column second from last meaning he lost 4 points before categories were introduced. Jeb Brovsky was very solid all the way through the categories never finishing lower that 4th out of 10 (once), and even topped the chances created category with 1.09 per 90 minutes. It may surprise fans to know that Greg Garza finished last in this category with 0.24 chances per 90 minutes.
Let that sink in though. The two most in-form fullbacks available to the USMNT are Jeb Brovsky, and Sean Franklin.
Stand-by: Geoff Cameron, Jalil Anibaba.
Central Defenders:
Original Squad: Ventura Alvarado, Matt Besler, John Brooks, Brad Evans, Omar Gonzalez, Michael Orozco.
Prost-Amerika’s Power-Ranking Adjustments:
Categories: Tackles won, aerial duels won, blocks, clearances, interceptions, fouls committed.
Omar Gonzalez +44
Chad Marshall +23
Ventura Alvarado +17
Matt Besler +16
Matthew Miazga +16
Steve Birnbaum +12
Chad Marshall made 11 appearances for the USMNT between 2005-2010, why did he stop getting picked? His fellow teammate Brad Evans is continually picked by Jurgen Klinsmann but so far this season Marshall is in way better form (Chad Evans’ power ranking came in at dead 0). Steve Birnbaum has been given national team experience this year, and is a key player for arguably the best team in MLS right now, DC United, and Matthew Miazga’s wonderful season for the Red Bulls pays off as he checks in with the same power ranking at stalwart Matt Besler.
Miazga absolutely destroyed the tackles won column with 3.18 per 90 minutes. The closest man to him in the final 6 — Omar Gonzalez — averaged just 1.85 tackles won per 90. Birnbaum, meanwhile, won the aerial duels category by just over 7% with an astonishing 80.39% of his aerial duels won.
Stand-by: David Horst +7, John Brooks +9.
Wingers/Outside Mids:
Original Squad: Brad Davis, Fabian Johnson, Zusi
Prost-Amerika’s Power-Ranking Adjustments:
Categories: Successful take-ons, chances created, assists, pass completion, goals scored.
Harry Shipp +32
Justin Meram +23
Graham Zusi +23
Chris Rolfe +22
Another group with very little (barring Graham Zusi) international experience. Wide midfielders aren’t just about pinpoint crosses these days, they’re about goals too. Rolfe (yes, we know, he has played a few games as a forward for DCU this season) has a goals per 90 minute ratio of 0.31 goals to compare to a USMNT regular, Graham Zusi has a ratio of just 0.11 goals.
Harry Shipp was one of the surprises of the study. Shipp was successful in 65.52% of his take-ons, and has created 2.44 chances per 90 minutes. Ship also contributed the second best assists per 90 ratio at 0.30 second to only Brad Davis and Chris Rolfe (0.31). The Chicago Fire fans have had little to cheer about this season but Shipp could be a gleaming light for the future.
Stand-by: Kelyn Rowe +18, Brad Davis +16.
Central Midfielders:
Original Squad: Kyle Beckerman, Alejandro Bedoya, Michael Bradley, Joe Corona, Mix Diskerud, Perry Kitchen, Alfredo Morales, Lee Nguyen.
Prost-Amerika’s Power-Ranking Adjustments:
Categories: Pass completion percentage, total successful passes, chances created, total successful duels (aerial and take ons), tackles won, fouls committed.
Michael Bradley +37
Dax McCarty +37
Benny Feilhaber +23
Joe Corona +18
Mix Diskerud +13
Victor Ulloa +10
Scott Caldwell +8
Kyle Beckerman +5
Not that many surprises here, although Dax McCarty did come out with a +37 power ranking. Dax started the analysis with a +4 power ranking due to his average rating. Michael Bradley for what it’s worth started with +7. Dax wins more about 0.52 more tackles per 90 than Kyle Beckerman, boasts 11.55 more successful passes per game than any other central midfielder in the top 8, and only trails Michael Bradley in pass completion percentage by 1% (86 to 85%).
Dax has been instrumental for New York Red Bulls and is making a strong case to start at the bottom of Jurgen Klinsmann’s diamond.
Stand-by: Sacha Kljestan 0, Alejandro Bedoya -22.
Strikers:
Original squad: Juan Agudelo, Jozy Altidore, Aron Johnasson, Clint Dempsey, Alan Gordon, Chris Wondolowski, Jordan Morris, Gyasi Zardes.
Prost-Amerika’s Power-Ranking Adjustments:
Categories: Shot accuracy, chances created, total duels won, key passes.
Clint Dempsey +45
Will Bruin +35
Jozy Altidore +34
Aron Johansson +21
Chris Wondolowski +9
Charlie Davies +6
Juan Agudelo -2
Something that might surprise readers is Will Bruin being so high up on the list of striker options for the USMNT. At the time of writing Bruin had the best goal scoring ratio per 90 minutes with 0.72, this is actually 0.12 goals per 90 more than Clint Dempsey, and 0.38 per 90 better than Juan Agudelo.
Prost-Amerika had previously written about Bruin’s puzzling omissions from the USMNT over the past few years and the inclusions of players like Bobby Wood, Julian Green and Jordan Morris. While players like Wood and Morris are great stories, players who are making real contributions at a professional level are being overlooked.
Dempsey’s outburst may cost him a few minutes on the field in game one of the tournament, or maybe he’ll be left out vs Haiti, but he is the best overall player. Deuce makes 1.28 key passes per 90, as well as creating 1.71 chances for his team per 90.
Many Revolution fans had called on Charlie Davies to get a call from Jurgen Klinsmann and while the New England based forward has impressed his way into our 35 man roster, he likely wouldn’t make the final 23.
Stand-by: Gyasi Zardes -10, Alan Gordon -12
Prost Amerika 35 man USMNT Squad:
GK: Yarbrough, Hamid, Rimando, Howard.
DF: Brovsky, Villafana, Franklin, Woodberry, Chandler, Garza, Gonzalez, Marshall, Alvarado, Besler, Miazga, Birnbaum.
MF: Shipp, Meram, Zusi, Rolfe, Bradley, McCarty, Feilhaber, Corona, Ulloa, Diskerud, Caldwell, Beckerman.
FW: Dempsey, Bruin, Altidore, Johnasson, Wondolowski, Davies, Agudelo.
If Jurgen Klinsmann truly picked the USMNT’s 35 man squad on current form rather than previous service to the national team, then it would look more like this.
There are 16 changes to the provisional 35 man roster. Using the power ranking system we can see who is making a meaningful contribution to their teams on a week to week basis. As Major League Soccer is in full flow and players are at their peak fitness, many of its players out-performed their European counterparts, even when the players playing in the EU were given a boost in their rankings just for playing abroad.
Klinsmann has been mildly successful for the United States and his recruitment process is certainly different, but maybe if Jurgen really wanted to try something radical he would try picking players who are actually performing rather than ones that might.
Based on the power rankings, here is the USMNT 23 man squad as if it were picked on form only:
GK: Yarbrough, Hamid, Rimando.
DF: Brovsky, Franklin, Villafana, Gonzalez, Marshall, Alvardo, Besler.
MF: Shipp, Meram, Zusi, Bradley, McCarty, Feilhaber, Corona, Ulloa, Diskerud.
FW: Dempsey, Bruin, Altidore, Johansson.
Realistically even though the USMNT need not win the Gold Cup this year, it would help them to avoid a playoff to get into the next Confederations Cup. That being said, the 23 man squad chosen by Prost-Amerika’s power rankings does reflect a squad that matches youth, with experienced players whether they have played at the international level or not.
You can’t rely on experience forever, and experience can only make up for the inevitable decrease in actual skill for so long.
A squad like Prost-Amerika’s would enable the USMNT to solidify a “golden generation,” setting them up for success in this summer’s gold cup, as well as the 2018 World Cup.
Follow Scott Nicholls on Twitter: @scottnicholls
