UK Election: Labour & Conservatives level. What happens if nobody wins?
There is one week to go until Britain votes for its new government.
There has been little movement in the UK-wide polls with both Labour and the Conservatives showing narrow leads in opinion polls held on the same day.
Only one thing is agreed on by nearly everybody. Neither party will see 326 MPs elected, the number needed to ‘win’ an election outright and therefore govern without the aid of other parties in the 650 member House of Commons.
Still, leaders of both main parties continue to pretend to the media that this is what they shall in fact do, and neither Conservative (Tory) leader David Cameron and Labour leader Ed Milliband are talking publicly about potential coalition deals they might do with smaller parties. The Tories are though talking incessantly about deals Labour might do.
Until recently a majority of the polls had Labour narrowly ahead, especially those using the internet to sample. Older voters are less likely to have the internet and are also more likely to be Conservatives. What polls do best though is track movement.
In the last few days, there has been a trickle back to the Tories whose numbers now fall in the 32.5%–35.5% range while Labour lie between 32%–34.5%.
It has to be stated very clearly that who gets the most votes does not matter.
In fact it matters even less than it did in the USA when Al Gore outpolled George W Bush in people voting for him, but lost the electoral college.
The UK is divided into 650 seats or constituencies. Whoever wins the most votes in each of those elects an MP from there. Whoever gets the most MPs wins – usually.
But not this time. So unpopular are the two main parties that there is no way either can hope to reach 326 MPs individually. So people are staring to look at what happens next when neither can command a clear majority.
POTENTIAL CONSERVATIVE ALLIES
As sitting Prime Minister, Cameron gets the first chance to form a coalition that will reach 326 (realistically 323 as one Irish party does not take its seats). On the morning of May 8th, he will go to Buckingham Palace and ask the Queen for time to negotiate and form a government. If the result is awful, he may resign immediately. She will then summon Ed Milliband and invite him to form a government or at least propose a Queens Speech (a statement of intended policies) that will not be defeated in the Commons.
Mr Cameron’s potential options are:
1) Existing coalition partners, Liberal Democrats
Currently holding over 50 seats, they seem doomed to loose 2/3 of them due to being in coalition with the Tories. This has irked their previous voters, many of whom lean left of centre. However, individual MPs remain popular locally and it is not unlikely they will still top 30 MPs.
Even on the best polls though, that will not take the Conservatives to 323. If it does, the current coalition will continue.
2) Ulster Unionists
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are the larger of the pro-British parties in Northern Ireland. They are viewed from the outside as dangerously sectarian and anti-Catholic, which is to be fair less true now than it was 20 years ago. Politically right of centre, they would demand more cash for Northern Ireland and maybe some concessions on local matters although most of the contentious matters (such as who waves which flag in whose face) are devolved to the local Stormont Assembly in Belfast.
Some more centrist Conservatives might not like the DUP very much but beggars cannot be choosers. With their roots heavily in religion, they bring a tinge of homophobia too but any attempt to act on it would be rebuffed.
The DUP are likely to win 8-10 seats but it would be hard to see the very socially progressive Liberal Democrats anywhere near them although the LibDems have ruled out being in coalitions with everyone else but them.
The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) are a more moderate Unionist Party and used to have close links with the Conservatives. They could probably work with either party to form a stable government, and vote against individual things they disliked without bringing down a government.
The two Unionist parties could total as many as twelve MPs because they agreed on a single candidate in some places but this is at the top end of the scale. One small downside might be that a significant Ulster Unionist block in government may destabilize the Northern Ireland peace process but it has a way of restabilising itself these days.
3) The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)
UKIP are currently polling between 13% and 17%, but they may only return 4 MPs at best due to their vote not being concentrated in a small number of seats.
The Tories have been somewhat successful in hauling back votes potentilly lost to the staunchly anti-immigration and anti-European party; but nothing too nasty and divisive has been said by one to the other that would prevent some sort of deal if those 4 MPs could help secure a majority.
Unhelpfully though, the very pro-Europe Liberal Democrats has said they would not sit in a coalition with UKIP, according to leader Nick Clegg.
This means that the Tories would need close to 310 seats to make a workable coalition without the Lib Dems and that is more than any poll has indicated.
With some bodies from Ulster, the current coalition could get close if everything else sails in their favour. It would require a late swing even on the most recent polls though.
Most likely coalition or loose deal: Conservatives + Lib Dems + DUP
POTENTIAL LABOUR ALLIES
1) The Scottish National Party (SNP)
The possibility of a deal between Labour and the SNP has filled up more media pages than any other issue. In fact, even in England, the SNP have become THE issue. Some of the press coverage aimed at the SNP and their leader Nicola Sturgeon has been appalling, both in tone and severity.
Accused of being Trotskyites, fascists and everything in between by the English and pro-Labour Scottish press has done them no harm as Scottish voters turn increasingly hostile to the London based parties.
The English media, hoping to scare people back into the Conservative fold, has gone to town. There are indications that this tactic has been successful in England where wavering Tories have returned to the fold, both from Labour and UKIP.
A collection of anti-SNP articles and tweets, some of it from Labour supporters and others from Conservative newspapers
Despite many articles like the above, but more likely because of it, the ‘Nats’ are on course to win over 40 seats of Scotland’s 59 and become kingmakers. The last poll has them winning the lot but that is likely an outlier.
The SNP lean farther left than Labour on defence and the economy and have already ruled out any deal that puts the Tories back in power as the Tory brand is beyond toxic in Scotland due to lingering memories of Margaret Thatcher.
Editorial: Margaret Thatcher dies – A legacy of conviction but also of division.
You might think that an alliance between the two parties would be the inevitable answer.
The SNP’s progressive policies are in tune with those of many Labour activists and some MPs. However Labour’s leadership has ruled it out under a concerted attempt by the Conservative papers to paint the SNP as dangerous.
If Milliband walks away from a workable agreement, that will leave the Tories in power with a minority government. Many Labour activists in England have no axe to grind with the SNP though and they may not forgive him. Despite everything Milliband has said rebuffing the idea, this is hard to see him doing.
Labour MPs in Scotland however despise the SNP with a venom England does not comprehend but there will be few of them left to object after the election. Almost 3/4 of the likely 35-45 SNP gains are at Labour’s expense.
If Ed Milliband is prepared to backtrack on almost everything he said during the campaign, some sort of agreement to get him into power is not unfeasible. He dug himself deeper into a hole on Thursday night.
On BBC Question Time he made an unambiguous statement that he’d rather not be in government than do go into coalition with or do a deal with the SNP. He then reaffirmed it in a tweet:
There are two reasons why he might say something so superficially self harming and both are electoral.
One would be to try and blunt Tory press attacks on the dangers of voting Labour and thus allowing the SNP in government.
The other is to force Scots into voting Labour rather than the SNP because he will walk away from government and let the Tories have power, unless Labour wins enough seats on its own.
The former may work but it is unfeasible that the Scots will give in to this and Milliband may have calculated that Scotland is already lost electorally and he may be able to swing a few English Tory seats his way by talking tough.
After all, Milliband is the man who threatened to put armed guards at the border if Scotland voted for independence, so he has nothing to lose by saying he will not allow the Scots to have a say in government unless they vote for him.
2) Liberal Democrats
Yes, they are that chameleon like that they fall into both lists (Tory and Labour). Ideologically, they may be more comfortable in bed with Labour although it seems that it is mostly their left-wing MPS who are about to be turfed out by an electorate unhappy with their previous deal with the Conservatives. If they top 30 seats and Labour gets close to 290, there may be enough flotsam and jetsam from Northern Ireland to control a majority. (see below).
There just don’t seem to be enough seats though for a straight Lib/Lab pact to cross that 326 rubicon.
The Liberal Democrats have said they would not sit in a coalition with the Labour if the SNP were involved , according leader Nick Clegg. They may not be asked. Labour and the SNP, on current projections, could reach 326 without them.
That said, Clegg may lose his seat in Sheffield and a new Lib Dem leader may be able to segue away from some of Clegg’s more brash utterings. In fact, some role in a Labour government may be just what the Liberal Democrat party needs to restore faith in its progressive voters.
A 3-way agreement would have a very large majority for progressive policies.
3) Assorted Ulstermen
Northern Ireland has 18 seats. The DUP should win 8-10. But what about the rest?
The others will be split between the more moderate Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), perhaps two moderate independents and two pro-Irish parties SDLP and Sinn Fein (once the political wing of terrorists but now a peaceful democratic party). Sinn Fein do not send their MPs to Westminster, which will take between 3 and 5 out of the equation, lowering the number needed to maybe 323.
The SDLP will assist Labour to stay in power and could add up to five. Both Independents are likely to be willing to help form a stable government if their one vote could make a difference. The UUP used to be close to the Conservatives but helping Labour reach a stable government cannot be ruled out.
4) Plaid Cymru (Party of Wales)
The Welsh equivalent of the SNP is not seeing such heady times and may return just its current three MPs but it’s unlikely to be much more. Plaid is quite radical and would never help the Tories stay in power but Labour’s hysterical attacks on the SNP would now make including Plaid MPs in a coalition somewhat hypocritical.
Then again, this is politics. Plaid leader Leanne Wood said tonight that she could do a deal to put Labour in power even if the SNP was not involved.
Most likely coalition: Labour + Liberal democrats + Assorted Irish + One Green MP
Most likely loose deal: Labour + SNP + Plaid Cymru
The rhetoric has been extreme, far more so than in previous elections.
Coincidentally, public respect for the institution of Westminster is at a low. This is reflected with support for UKIP in England and the SNP in Scotland though this has more to do with the way Labour conducted themselves in the referendum.
An expenses scandal has much to do with this dissatisfaction and the voters may return a lower combined vote for the three main parties than ever before.
Tomorrow, a campaign update and one newspaper is caught rigging its own tactical voting software.
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