Southampton and Chelsea will meet twice this month
Chelsea’s 2017/18 season really hangs on the FA Cup by now.
Their Wembley meeting with Southampton in the FA Cup semi final was perhaps the easiest of the three options when the draw was made, with high flying Tottenham and Manchester United being the other possibilities. Chelsea lie ten points behind Spurs in the league and there seems little chance of catching them and making fourth place.
But if Blues fans and indeed coach Antonio Conte wanted to focus on that Wembley encounter immediately and uniquely, they cannot. The club has two games before then and they could not have been of the more irritating variety.
Both are away from home and while only one of the two involves a longer distance on the team bus, the other has a special tweak, On Saturday, Chelsea pay a league visit to the south coast to face none other than Cup opponents Southampton.
One of the less reliable myths about football is that it is hard to beat the same side twice in close proximity. That would ordinarily make the trip more tricky but the relative league positions of the two clubs hands Conte an ace.
Mark Hughes’ Saints lie third bottom and retaining their EPL status must surely rank as a priority for the wily Welshman than a swansong in the FA Cup Final while they parachute to the Championship as happened to Wigan in 2013.
The bottom 10 of the EPL shows the Saints’ perilThey are three points behind Crystal Palace with a game in hand and their goal differences are identical. Huddersfield with a significantly worse goal difference lie a further point ahead. Palace and Huddersfield both have home games against nearly safe sides, Brighton and Watford respectively, and there is a good chance one of them if not both will win. Even more unhelpfully, Swansea are at home to Everton and the South Wales side will have that game down in their notebook as one of their most winnable remaining games.
In short, the three sides Southampton they most need to lose this weekend, are more likely than not going to pick up points. That puts enormous pressure on the Saints to add to both their own points tally and Conte’s woes.
Another of football’s great urban myths is that the easiest games at the end of a season are those against teams with nothing to play for in the league. Chelsea (like Everton) fall into that category. Ten points behind Spurs, a top four place and the CL spot is now beyond them following Sunday’s disappointing draw with West Ham.
Therefore Conte could be well excused for resting key players at St Marys or putting out a side dramatically different to that he will field at Wembley. That should throw Hughes a lifeline and give him a better better chance in a fixture that would have been less promising before Chelsea’s title challenge collapsed.
The Blues then have a longer drive of 246 miles to Lancashire to face Burnley on Tuesday while Southampton face a trip 106 miles shorter to Leicester in another game they would be hopeful of a reward. Leicester lie safe in mid table and will have little to play for.
So while Chelsea will see the next nine days as a chance to rest the bigger names, Southampton view it as a vital week to save their EPL status with points likely to be accruing liberally among those above them. Those who replace the Chelsea stars may even create some challenges for places in the semi by performing less lethargically than many did on Sunday leaving Conte some options.
Hughes does not have anything the like the depth of quality as the Blues’ boss nor does he have the luxury of concentrating on Wembley. If Chelsea will be the hungrier side come Wembley, there is every chance it will be otherwise at St Marys in Southampton this weekend.
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