MLS Expansion Sweepstakes – June Edition Phoenix ‘rising’

MLS Expansion Sweepstakes – June Edition Phoenix ‘rising’

This is the first part of a monthly article assessing the runners and riders for the two December 2017 MLS Expansion slots. Author and minor league expert Kartik Krishnaiyer will assess all the hopes and dreams of the 12 cities bidding to join LAFC as the next team to join Major League Soccer.

The recent weeks have been noticeable for the sudden prominence of the Phoenix bid, once considered an outsider and the political setbacks for the San Diego bid.

Krishnaiyer places them in his ranking order starting at the top.

1- San Antonio

 2- Sacramento Republic

3- Raleigh/Durham

North Carolina FC has transformed from a struggling NASL club on the brink of extinction before being rescued by Steve Malik in October 2015 to possibly the most impressive complete pro soccer club outside MLS in June 2017.  Malik has secured the long-term future of the club formerly known as the Carolina RailHawks.

Additionally, he  bought and relocated the NWSL Champion Western New York Flash who are now playing as the North Carolina Courage and integrated the CASL youth pyramid, one of the best in the country into the club. This club is ready-to-go and could temporarily play at WakeMed Soccer Park, the current home of the NASL club indefinitely until a stadium was built. WakeMed is one of the best soccer-specific playing surfaces in the country and has hosted countless NCAA College Cups on both the men’s and women’s side.

The Raleigh/Durham market isn’t the largest but it is one with an almost unparalleled history of support pro and college soccer both of the women’s and men’s variety. It seems a natural fit for MLS.

Positive: Steady ownership, built-in youth structure, large soccer community

Negative: TV market size, unlikely to get a downtown stadium

Bottom line: Solid but unspectacular. It really depends on whether MLS wants consistency or flashiness. If they want the latter look below.

4- San Diego

This bid was at number three when I started the article. I’m personally far from sold on this market. San Diego for better or for worse reminds me of Miami which has a checkered history of supporting pro soccer. Here’s how:  Like Miami, San Diego has lots of other local entertainment options (including USMNT-heavy Xolos right across the border in Tijuana), the stadium is an issue and the stagnant nature of local politics is a drawback.

They need a Special Election to vote on the FS Investors stadium plan. Although Mayor Faulconer had allocated $5m in the budget for that, the City Council grabbed it at a chaotic council meeting on June 5 for other purposes, most of them very worthy, effectively setting up a June 19 showdown with the Mayor. That alone moved their hopes down to 4.

Also the lack of successful history for clubs that have played in the lower divisions is an issue. NASL looks poised to create a linkup with Albion youth club or another group for a new pro team that could begin play in the 2nd division in 2018 or 2019. This would be unrelated to the MLS bid.

But whatever my personal opinions, MLS seems to be eyeing this market and ready to roll with the political support they need.

The potential upside here is better than in most prospective expansion cities, it must be conceded. San Diego has a real good shot of getting into MLS if they overcome local political intractability and might just prove to surprise us all.

Positive:MLS really wants this market. Natural rivalry with LA Galaxy and LAFC. Decent Hispanic market

Negative:Local competition, no history of supporting lower division soccer, political interests against stadium plan

Bottom line: I wouldn’t pick SD personally. In fact it would be near the bottom of on my list. But MLS is moving heaven on earth for this it appears and it does make sense from a geographic standpoint. The west coast has proven much stronger to MLS’ support than the east coast or midwest.

5- Cincinnati

FC Cincinnati is the flavor of the year in American soccer. Drawing crowds upwards of 20,000 on a regular basis, many have placed FC Cincinnati right at the top of the prospective MLS expansion list.

Not so fast – the market has shown it can support soccer at a high level for one year only and that has been thanks in large measure to extravagant spending. Cincinnati is a middle American city that has adopted the ultimate hipster and foreign sport – that in itself should be a big story and something everyone in the American soccer community can embrace.

The TV market would be the smallest in MLS and there is no Hispanic population base either.

But given the ambition and support this organization has show and elicited, it would be a shame if they missed out. Proximity to Columbus is also a consideration though regional rivalries should be encouraged rather than discouraged. If MLS is willing to look past market size, Cincinnati should get in.

Positive: So-far a really rabid fan base

Negative: Smallish TV market, proximity to Columbus,

Bottom Line: Cincinnati’s “We invented the wheel!” mentality worked in Orlando and Seattle. But those were bigger markets. Still not much to criticize negatively here other than the small market size.

6- Phoenix

A late surge from Phoenix has put USL’s Phoenix Rising FC right in the conversation for MLS Expansion.

Phoenix is the second largest TV market outside MLS and is also a top ten Hispanic market. The addition of Omar Bravo and Shaun Wright-Phillips to the playing squad gave the club a boost as they sought to increase attendance, local interest and sponsorship this season as a prelude to an MLS jump. Then came Didier Drogba, as a part-owner and player.

Phoenix Rising FC was suddenly making global headlines. For a large market and a club that’s generating global feel-good headlines, what could be a drawback? Plenty actually.

USL has tried valiantly to make this market work, cycling through three ownership changes and as many complete rebrands in recent years. For whatever reason despite decent crowds, something always gets in the way. Then there is the desire to privately finance a stadium where the club currently plays. That’s a noble goal but will be difficult.

Political support is coming together but later than it has in most other serious markets. Still we’ve seen lots of sizzle from Phoenix lately and it might very well end up in the top 4 when it matters.

Positives: Huge market, splashy names

Negatives: No consistency in this market, stadium and political plans behind other markets.

Bottom line: Phoenix might have enough to cross the finish line eventually but right now is behind. MLS would like to be in this market at some point but is no rush

7- Tampa/ St Pete

The largest TV market in the US without an MLS team, Tampa/St Petersburg is also one of only two markets to lose an MLS team (Miami/Fort Lauderdale is the other). The Tampa Bay Rowdies revival in 2010 rekindled a fan base that has been dormant, but immediately demonstrated the strength of this market. Tampa was usurped by nearby Orlando who eclipsed Tampa Bay as an MLS consideration in 2012 and 2013 while the Rowdies struggled with ownership, but the MLS dream never really died.

The Rest

Long shots:

Non-starter: