Sunday’s derby failure makes an Open Cup title Seattle’s best chance at 2016 success.
By Steven Agen
The Seattle Sounders fell 3-1 to the Portland Timbers in Sunday’s Cascadia derby at Providence Park. With the victory, Portland leapfrogged Sporting KC in the Western Conference standings. The Midwesterners dropped two 1-0 results last week and Timbers used the opportunity to pull themselves over the red line and into the sixth and final playoff berth.
On 20 points from 19 matches played, it’s those very Timbers that Seattle will have to catch in order to make the postseason. Their lack of sharpness on offense and inability to defend the counter makes that scenario look unlikely. It looks less likely yet when one considers that the Timbers have a full nine point advantage on Sounders. With only fifteen matches to go and nine points separating the clubs, some doubt it can be done. Even with the impending arrival of Nicolas Lodeiro the task looks perhaps too much for Sigi Schmid and his charges to overcome.
That’s because Sunday was their last chance in the league this year. It was the last opportunity to build real momentum. To make a case that they belong in the playoffs. Even if Seattle do pull off a miracle and rattle off the results they need to get back in contention, it’s clear enough to anyone watching that their roster simply isn’t as cohesive or dangerous as others in the West. A loss in the play-in rounds or (at the very farthest) or Conference Semifinals would surely follow.
When it comes to Seattle’s MLS chances in 2016, they appear to have evaporated after Sunday’s loss. If Sunday was their last chance in the league, then Wednesday marks their last chance to make 2016 a productive year overall.
On Wednesday night, Seattle take on the LA Galaxy in a US Open Cup Quarterfinal. The match will take place at the Track & Field Facility at the StubHub Center, as the Crossfit Games are currently commanding the use of the main stadium.
Sounders earned the matchup after a remarkable victory in penalty kicks over Real Salt Lake in the last round. Travelling to Utah with a tired first team, Seattle rolled out their reserves out as Jeff Cassar and RSL tossed out all their starters. Sounders’ youngsters held out for 1-1 after 120 minutes, and goalkeeper Tyler Miller saved two penalties in the shootout as the kids scored the side’s biggest win of the year so far.
Miller and his fellow reserves will be asked to conjure up a similar magic on Wednesday, as Seattle played a first-choice lineup in both a 5-0 win over Dallas midweek and in the derby over the weekend. While the failure of the first team is not attributable to them, they carry the weight of the entire season on their shoulders.
Miller will get the call again in goal. The backline is likely to be anchored by the veteran-rookie center back tandem of Zach Scott and Tony Alfaro. Oniel Fisher and either Dylan Remick or normal starter Joevin Jones, pulled on Sunday, will get the nod at outside back.
Schmid has chosen to stick to the new-look 4-3-3 the first team runs even when the reserves play. That’s generally left him with a midfield trio of Zach Mathers, Nathan Sturgis and Cristian Roldan. Roldan went all 90 minutes against Portland and it is up in the air as to whether he will start or not on Wednesday. Osvaldo Alonso and Erik Friberg both played twice last week as well, leaving Sounders a bit short on fitness in the center of the park. The most likely option is for Roldan to make a second start in four days, and the options don’t get any brighter after that.
Sounders face fitness issues in the front three as well. Nelson Valdez, Andreas Ivanschitz and Jordan Morris played significant minutes on Sunday. Clint Dempsey is still unavailable in this competition after checking out of last year’s Open Cup defeat to Portland, earning a multi-year ban from the tournament. Morris will likely start anyways, and speedster Oalex Anderson was saved for this game as well. Herculez Gomez is the best backup option Seattle have at center forward if Morris isn’t fit from Sunday yet. Aaron Kovar, Seattle’s other Homegrown Player from Stanford, didn’t play much on Sunday either. He’s the odds-on favorite to round out the forward line.
Galaxy played a first choice lineup in their league game over the weekend as well. Fortunately for them, it was on Friday rather than Sunday. The two extra days of rest (and the fact that the match is in Carson) mean that Bruce Arena has plenty of flexibility with his lineup, a luxury Schmid simply doesn’t. Mike Magee is perhaps the biggest name that didn’t start in Friday’s win over Houston — expect him to lead LA on Wednesday.
An Open Cup title would send Seattle back to the CONCACAF Champions League after missing out on qualification in 2015. It would bring them much-needed allocation money. Most of all, it would bring with it the sense that Sounders hadn’t wasted a whole year. While developing young players to the extent of not being competitive will never be tolerated in Seattle, winning a major trophy while doing so would be. With Schmid’s seat getting hotter and hotter as the form gets worse and worse the trophy could save his job as well.
A loss would mean Seattle have little left to play for in 2016. A winning streak in MLS play would need to pop up awfully soon or the focus would turn to next year.
Without anything of substance to chew over, the attention of the fanbase will turn towards the failures of the season. No Open Cup, little hope for Cascadia Cup and out of the league for months, they will turn to the Head Coach.
A loss gives the fanbase fifteen matches to poke every hole possible in Schmid’s soccer philosophy. Left unabated they will surely walk away with Schmid’s job. Unless Sounders and their front office can find something to turn their attention to, one wonders what the notoriously passionate support base would occupy themselves with other than replacing the manager.
In short, the eleven reserves Seattle select to start on Wednesday represent the best chance for Sounders to win a trophy, and to save their season and their coach.
PREDICTION:
LA Galaxy 2, Seattle Sounders 1
Magee 18′
Morris 66′
Gordon 89′
Sounders FC
