10 Crazy MLS Predictions for 2016

By Matt Hoffman

On Sunday, a new season was under way. With any new season comes the obligation of making predictions that seem both plausible and a little out there. This is harder than it sounds; Already the low-hanging fruit has been plucked: San Jose and Colorado engineered a legitimate TAM for GAM swap. Toronto and Seattle have also cut a similar deal.

Congratulations, you are reading an article offering predictions about a league whose teams trade Monopoly money for the currency from The Game of Life.

1. Vancouver becomes the first Canadian team to reach the MLS Cup Final

Carl Robinson has built a team that is defensively stout, that run the counter better than anyone, and are just nasty. The team is versatility personified: They can park the bus, they can throw numbers forward. Love what this team is capable of.

Here are my concerns about Vancouver:

1. They foul. A lot. They’ll make tackles in dangerous areas. David Ousted should be a maid he keeps so many clean sheets, but the league as a whole continues to get better free-kick specialists.
2. Several key members need to stay healthy. Kekuta Manneh, Pablo Morales, Nicolas Mezquida are critical pieces to make this clock tick and they all have an extensive injury history now. Mezquida already is dealing with a hip issue.
3. Vancouver has always seemed like happy family. And maybe they are! But guys want to get paid and goals are much better selling points than dummy runs into the box.
4. Octavio Rivero seemed to falter last year once teams had film on him. Rivero led the Golden Boot conversation for a period only to score twice in the final three months. It wasn’t like Rivero was creating for others either: he didn’t post an assist past June match against the Red Bulls.
5. No one is sleeping on the ‘Caps anymore. Or if they are, they should stop.

That said, I love this team. They sprinted out to a big lead last year before falling back to Earth. They’ve invested more money in attackers getting Blas Perez from FC Dallas and plucking Masato Kudo from Kashiwa Reysol in the J League. I would not all be surprised to see the Cup remain in Cascadia.

2. We’ll start hearing those Landon Donovan comeback rumors

Landon Donovan has been broadcaster for Fox and has said, and I believe him, that he’s never been happier. But if Donovan were to return, his window to play at the top level getting smaller.

If he were to come back, there is no better team or set up for him than his old team, the LA Galaxy. He can remain in LA, be reunited with the coach he had unparalleled success with and thrive on a team and in a situation where he is comfortable.

With Fox’s obligations to Copa America ending in July, there’s a great chance that Donovan can be snagged during the Summer Transfer Window. Being a legend who only wants to play with LA, Donovan and the Galaxy could certainly agree on an agreeable salary.

If there is any team that knows how to shuffle funds (or, if you are being cynical, how to create new rules), it is the Galaxy.

After all, Donovan certainly wouldn’t be the first to retire and come back. Alexi Lalas retired from the Wizards in 1999. Where did Lalas land? The Galaxy.

My prediction, there will substantive talks* with the Galaxy (and let’s throw LAFC into the mix as well), Donovan will not return in 2016.

*“Substantive Talks” is the easiest way to CYA in MLS, the league that makes Swiss bank transfer look indiscreet.

3. At least two coaches will be fired by the All-Star Game

MLS teams are loathe to cut their coaches loose midway through the season. But with teams having more access to capital than ever before (TV deals and the $100 million expansion fees), teams are more willing to cut their losses before December.

The backlash of hiring foreign managers appears to be over. Teams are more willing to look overseas while coaches are more able to embrace the MLS culture.

Then there’s the fact that Jason Kreis is out there and remains a damn good coach. My guess is he probably is the only reason he’s not coaching is he’s still owed some years on his Man City deal that will probably be voided if he takes another head coaching gig.

Early candidates:

• Toronto

The Reds have a nasty start to the season with their first eight games on the road. Jozy Altidore will miss at least two matches with a hamstring injury. Hamstrings can be death for strikers so who knows if Altidore ever recovers in the season. That’s a DP slot he’s using on a team that we can have to assume is hampered by the salary cap.

Yes, Toronto did have an impressive win over the Red Bulls but it wasn’t the clear victory the 2-0 scoreline would articulate. If and when Altidore does recover, you have to expect him to miss matches this summer alongside Will Johnson, Michael Bradley and Giovinco is getting him some Azzuri love enough to possibly play in the Euros.

That’s a lot to put on any coach. Add in new President Bill Manning’s expectations are to build on the success of last season.

Should Toronto be firmly rooted in the East cellar ten games into the season, will that be enough for Manning to tip his hand.

• Philadelphia

The expectations aren’t quite the same for Jim Curtin who is in a “prove it” year. The two Open Cup runs were fun but the club has undergone a series of changes and Curtin’s new bosses want to see improvement on the field.

• NYCFC

It’s hard to see Viera being the long-term solution here. After all, wasn’t he the linchpin to the vaunted Man City academy? Keep in mind Pep Guardiola takes the helm midway through the season and it’s hard to predict what the outlook will be for City’s vanity project once that happens.

• Real Salt Lake

It’s one thing to ditch the tried-and-true 4-4-2 diamond, it’s another thing to lose. Jeff Cassar did both as RSL took a step backwards in 2015. Dell Loy Hansen has been the principle owner for three years and the club has been sliding since then.

Hansen is a bit of a loose cannon not afraid to go to Facebook to chuck former GM under the bus as well as breaking the MLS owners vow of silence in the middle of intense negotiations during last year’s labor battle.

More troubling was Hansen’s decision to cut GM Bill Manning. Manning is a top-notch executive who had no problems finding a landing spot in Toronto but in the announcement Hansen stated the “growing organization requires a different structure”.

Yikes! RSL for years punched above their weight and ownership is looking for a new structure?

• Orlando

Adrian Heath did a great job pulling together an expansion team to make a playoff push. Orlando is another mix of high expectations and a volatile front office.

• Colorado

Since taking the reins in March, 2014 Pablo Mastroeni has led the Rapids to consecutive last place finishes and failed to get past the fifth round of the US Open Cup. Last year the Rapids scored 33 goals, worst in the league and the lowest in franchise history since 2007 when the league had 13 teams and the team played 30 games.

In two years, Mastroeni has only five more wins (19) than the man who preceded him, Oscar Pareja, had in 2013 alone (14).

He’s saying the right things ahead of the season opener, but it is hard to see Mastroeni surviving a third year if the team doesn’t improve. It’s a challenge to be sure. Attendance is low, players are reluctant to come in (it’s a good bet the team had to overpay to bring in players like Shkelzen Gashi, Kevin Doyle and Tim Howard who will join the team in the Summer), and their schedule is just plain tough.

4. Seattle will miss the playoffs.

Seattle has never missed the playoffs. Ever. It would be easy to put them in as a foregone conclusion but this is crazy predictions, remember? The Sounders began last year like gangbusters last year before going into a total tailspin following the USOC debacle.

That prompted a crazy spending binge in the Summer Transfer Window. I’m pretty high on Andres Ivanschitz. I like Nelson Valdez as well but there is so much vitriol of the Paraguayan on Twitter for me to acknowledge that I must be missing something.

Valdez will be getting his chance to prove people wrong getting the minutes that would otherwise have gone to Obafemi Martins. That transaction still leaves with more questions that answers.

Why ship out a core player–nay your best player–mere weeks before the season opener?

Okay, if Oba had his head turned enough that he checked out that’s one thing. I don’t buy it. I’m of the opinion that Oba had a great situation in Seattle. Remember this is a team that, even after all of the things that went wrong last year was penalty kicks away from the Western Conference Finals.

Jordan Morris is a legit stud and is great candidate to break Cyle Larin’s rookie goal tally assuming he can pair effectively with Clint Dempsey. At 32, Dempsey still has plenty left in the tank but it’s a mental leap of faith to think that he’ll be able to the chemistry he had with Oba with Valdez and Morris.

Speaking of transitioning to new roles, Brad Evans improved as a center back as he took in more games last year though not enough that fans took a huge sigh of relief when he returned to the midfield. Evans is a stand up guy who wants a shot of redemption.

How far Seattle can go will likely depend on how well Panamanian captain Roman Torres recovers from a knee injury. It’s hard to believe Chad Marshall is only 31, it feels like he has been in the league forever. He is still playing at such an insanely high level but do it he can’t do it all by himself. Zach Scott was solid and had a bit of nasty in him but has retired in the off-season apparently didn’t retire after all.

Seattle may actually feel the loss of Marco Pappas more. That was a situation where they had to let him go but a holding midfielder of his quality will be missed especially is Osvaldo Alonso misses an extended period of games.

I love that Seattle is going to a 4-3-3 but there’s a reason coaches don’t change systems. Sigi Schmid is putting a bullseye on himself for anything and everything that goes wrong. There’s bound to be a transition period because you can’t just rush a learning curve.

The outlook in Seattle is murky but Seattle will enough drop points here that it will ultimately catch up to them in October.

5. RSL makes the playoffs.

Okay, here me out. There’s the old saying that team building is chemistry, not algebra. You can add pieces but if they are a bad fit, you’re taking a step backwards.

Last year RSL’s streak of consecutive playoff appearances came to an end. The switch to a 4-3-3 was hindered by players who were just bad fits. As a team, RSL scored a paltry 38 goals. RSL forwards combined only had 19 goals.

Enter Yura Movsisyan the Californian Armenian on loan from Spartak Moscow of the Russian Premier League.

This has a great Back to the Future feel for it. In Movsisyan, RSL brings back the guy who scored Real Salt Lake’s first ever playoff goal. Movsisyan, a Generation adidas player, went from RSL to Rangers and eventually to Spartak Moscow as the 7th most expensive transfer in the Spartak history.

As an aside, both of these facts (and many others like it) were courtesy of Wikipedia. As I can tell you, someone has to pay to keep those servers running. Please consider a small cash donation to support this amazing service.

Movsisyan coming to RSL has been in the works for sometime and RSL’s front office is smart enough to build in a contraption for purchase.

Movsisyan is on a DP deal but unlike your average DP, Movsisyan won’t need an extended period to become adjusted to the league let alone the team philosophy.

What’s more, he’s 28, still in his prime. This isn’t a Bofo transaction, the symbolic gesture of bringing in a former club legend who was ultimately a distraction. (See here. and See here. Yep, all that in 33 delicious days).

Movsisyan importantly brings traits that were missing from this club last year as Jeff Cassar told The Salt Lake City Tribune: “He’s powerful, he’s relentless and, physically, not a lot of defenders can stay with him with his power and speed and athleticism.”

Nick Rimando remains in goal. Beckerman remains an effective destroyer. That was enough to keep the club in playoff contention until the final weeks of the season. With an effective scorer and distributor up top, what are the odds turns close losses into draws and, as the thinking goes, their eight draws into wins.

6. Sacramento finally gets the call

Sacramento has a passionate fan base, a viable stadium deal, and a sound partnership with local and city officials. What more could MLS want?

“We’ve accomplished all that [MLS] asked us to accomplish,” Republic FC President Warren Smith said in December.

What’s more, we know regional rivalries are driving a large segment of the league’s growth. Sacramento already has a budding rivalry with San Jose. Sacramento is relatively close to LA and is equidistant from RSL and Portland.

Geography may be the one thing that has kept Sacramento on the sidelines. If the city of Sacramento were to relocate to South Florida, they would have joined the league years ago.

MLS cannot give up on Beckham FC—they are obligated per terms of Beckham’s MLS deal– even as the saga continues to devolve into a source of farcical bewilderment. But 2016 will be the year that the league realizes the full potential of the MLS bid in Sacramento.

7. Bruce Arena and the LA Galaxy will prove August 2015 was a anomaly.

This feels less like a hot-take and more of a lukewarm, even cold-ish take.

Ashley Cole will long be remember for his remarks of America being a place to retire on the beach and rest assured there won’t be a stadium in the league that won’t remind him.

To understand why Cole is in LA, to paraphrase Jim Breuer if Half Baked, you gotta understand who LA Galaxy was:

Coming into 2015, the Galaxy had won four-of-the-last-five and in August they sure looked like they were going to make it five-of-six. Things fell apart. The center could not hold. Mere anarchy was loosed upon the StubHub Center.

Apologies to the William Butler Yeats purists but all was not well in LA-LA-land.

These were small setbacks next to the state of the Galaxy defense that imploded. Following their July 4th win over Toronto, the Galaxy would have only one shutout for the remainder of the year, a 0-0 draw against Montreal.

To fix this, the Galaxy hit the international market and picked up some well-known parts that might be just a smidge past their sell-by dates. A vocal minority think Bruce Arena has lost the plot.

Yet, if there’s anyone who’s proven time and time again that he’s ahead of the curve, it’s Bruce Arena.

It’s common knowledge that the Galaxy have one of the best, if not the best, youth set ups around where the graybeards were flanked by a veritable coterie of young talent. LA Galaxy II meanwhile advanced to the USL final before bowing out last year.

Arena knows talent when he sees it, but he also understands the limitations of young players. The Galaxy likely already has the pieces of their next dynasty already in house.

Instead of trying to bake a cake in half the time by doubling the heat, Arena has a team of–albeit highly priced–veterans to help bridge the gap from today’s Galaxy to the team of tomorrow.

There aren’t too many teams that can pull this off and, as Arena told the Washington Post’s Steven Goff, he’s not ready to retire yet and still driven to prove critics wrong.

8. D.C. United slips out of the playoff picture.

With the exception of the three win (but US Open Cup winning!) season of 2013, No team played from behind like United did last year giving up a league worst twelve goals in the first fifteen minutes. Conversely, DCU only had four goals of its own in that same period.

While other teams are bringing in young talent, United are replacing the talented Perry Kitchen with Marecello Sarvas.

Under Ben Olsen, DC United hasn’t necessarily gotten better, just older. The team had a nice run in the sun last year before falling through the standings The team is relying on a talented but veteran corps of Lamar Neagle, Chris Rolfe, and Fabian Espindola to get their offense on track.

DC has cobbled together a highly skilled set of veterans who fit their system. In an open league that would make them contenders. In a salary-capped league like MLS, DC have the salary cap issues of champions but the record of a middleweight.

9. The Red Bulls will win the East .. by not winning the East.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The New York Red Bulls win the Supporters Shield only to fall short of making the MLS Cup Final. New York played great throughout the season but ultimately peaked in September.

Winning a Supporters Shield is nice but the real prize is MLS Cup. Marsch expertly guided the team through the flotsam of the controversial firing of Mike Petke and the team was able to stay relatively healthy.

Look for the Red Bulls to start slow a little slower the expectation to peak a little later.

10. NYCFC will maddeningly remain NYCFC.

NYCFC sounds more like a Wall Street hedge fund than a soccer team. Every soccer team in the world has a nickname yet despite attempts to find common ground, NYCFC remains a tidy amalgam of consonants.

Maybe it is City FC, maybe the Blue Shirts. Maybe it’s Oasis USA. I don’t know. In a reasonable world, at some point the Twitterati will have spoken and fans the world around would rejoice.

Hey, at least they have a movie out, so that’s cool.

BONUS:  July will test Orlando’s Supporter’s Shield convictions.

Orlando fell short of the playoffs last year. That’s about the only negative thing you can say about a team whose passionate fans continue to pack the Citrus Bowl.

Kaka was his usual sublime self and the team scored the stud of the draft in Cyle Larin. There is only one thing stopping this team from taking a huge leap forward: OCSC will travel some 7,000 miles to play five games over the course of 19 days (July 4th to 23rd) with fixtures in Dallas, New York, Vancouver, and Columbus and one home game against Houston sandwiched in there.

If Orlando can managed to get eight or more points–tough but doable–I like Orlando’s odds at raising the Supporter’s Shield.