BEST CASE SCENARIO – Sounders Can Leap to Sixth
In the next installment of our unashamedly impartial series, BEST CASE SCENARIO, we proffer ‘hopecasts‘ for the seven MLS games on July 31st.
There are seven games on Saturday and one on Sunday in a full MLS slate and although one or two of the games present slightly more difficult decisions for last week, in the remaining six things were clear. It is becoming more apparent that San Jose, Colorado and Toronto are becoming the main characters in the drama that will unfold. In the dream world the BEST CASE SCENARIO principle inhabits, Sounders FC are one of four clubs slugging it out for three play-off places. San Jose, Colorado and Toronto are the other three. Houston still hover though and that’s why we ‘hopecast’ New York to beat them at the Robertson when they meet this Saturday. Chivas USA and Chicago Fire are two other sides making us slightly nervous, especially with the playing talent Chivas have recruited in the last three weeks. As they play Columbus and Los Angeles respectively, ‘hopecasting’ them to lose was pretty easy.
Colorado v FC Dallas was another tricky one, but eventually we decided that the Ewing Boys were uncatchable with only two defeats all season and are ready to ‘hopecast’ them to victories where it helps Seattle. There is some argument for disagreeing and saying one more side in the melange may be more beneficial than a potential reduction in the points target Sounders have to attain. But without Dallas to play anymore, Seattle will be cheering them on more weeks than not. They have Toronto San Jose and Colorado to play, the Rapids in fact twice. FC Dallas could do Seattle quite a number of favours along the way.
Real Salt Lake v DC United was a toss-up and eventually we opted for United. The theory was this, if DC United catch Seattle, then they probably never attained enough points to be in the play offs in the first place, so it was marginally better to dream of a highly unlikely RSL collapse. Add in, that RSL have Toronto and Colorado (also bizarrely twice), and it may just be handy to have RSL needing points until as late as possible in the regular season.
To read the principle behind BEST CASE SCENARIO, read the introductory article here.
FIXTURES – JULY 31
(H= Home Win. D= Draw. A = Away Win)
| 12:30am | Philadelphia | v | New England | D |
| 1:00pm | Colorado | v | FC Dallas | A |
| 5:30pm | Houston | v | New York | A |
| 5:30pm | Kansas City | v | Toronto FC | H |
| 6:00pm | Real Salt Lake | v | D.C. United | A |
| 7:00pm | San Jose | v | Seattle | A |
| 7:30pm | Chivas USA | v | Columbus | A |
AUGUST 1
| 7:30pm | LA Galaxy | v | Chicago | H |
Current MLS Full Table
MLS FULL TABLE (with ‘hopecasts‘ factored in)
| Pos | GP | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | LA Galaxy (W1) | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 43 |
| 2 | Columbus Crew (E1) | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake (W2) | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 31 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 29 |
| 5 | New York (E2) | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 29 |
| 6 | Sounders FC | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 23 |
| 8 | San Jose | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| 9 | Toronto FC | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 23 |
| 10 | Houston Dynamo | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -6 | 19 |
| 11 | Kansas City | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 19 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 13 | Chivas USA | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -5 | 15 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 15 |
| 15 | New England Revs | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 | DC United | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 15 |
Sounders v Colorado First Half slide show
Sounders v Colorado Second Half slide show
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Why would we want LA to lose to Chicago? Or am I reading this wrong? Wouldn’t we want LA to beat everyone in sight since they are basically untouchable?
Editor: We don’t. The H stands for a home win.
It’s gonna take a while for the table to get straight.
Dates of the games in hand for those around us:
Colorado: 8/21, 9/29
Chicago: 8/21, 9/11, 9/29, 10/12
Dallas: 8/21, 9/22
Houston: 8/21
Kansas City: 8/21, 10/12
New York: 8/11, 8/21
San Jose: 8/21, 9/29, 10/20
Toronto: 8/21, 9/11
Everybody but us and Real Salt Lake plays in the 8/21-22 “jornada”.
Editor: Thanks Jesse and adjustment made.
There are teams in front of us currently who have played 3 games fewer than the Sounders, and there are teams behind who have played 4 fewer.
Important to note that though we’re back in the ‘thick of things’ we’ve played 2 more games than many of the teams we’re competing against, so we need to probably climb into the top 3-5 in the full table to ensure that we’re in the playoff hunt.