Closer Each Day – Home and Away

History Meets Maths as We Use the Past to Look at Sunday's Game

We understand that we may have overdone the obscure references to lines from theme tunes of Australian soap operas (see Neighbours – Everybody Loves Good Neighbours), but they did qualify for the World Cup and may even be seeded. So now that Australia is a soccer world power, references to their culture, such as it is, are now fair game. As opposed to fair dinkum. (Go on, google it. You know you want to.)

Back to the point, Sounders FC have sent us a plethora of statistics, all of which seem to be trying to lead us to the conclusion that Sounders are going to win in Houston on Sunday, or at least that we shouldn’t be surprised if they do. We thought we’d take a look to see if the statistics could tell us anything about the upcoming big match, and pass them on to you so that you could decide for yourself.

So Let’s Pro-Seed

The low seed takes home advantage for the first leg in the Play-off structure. At this stage in the tournament, the first match has ended in a draw six times in past seasons. On two of those six occasions, the lower seed has progressed nonetheless, including New York Red Bulls who did to the Houston Dynamo last year, what Sounders FC are attempting to do this year. Dynamo had secured a creditable 1-1 draw at Giants Stadium. New York, who were only in the Western Conference by dint of being the fifth best in the East, won 3-0 in Houston. A year is a long time in MLS. Especially in the Big Apple.

Chicago Fire were the other ‘draw first win away’ side, thumping at DC United 0-4 in 2005.

Regular Season Home Record Does not Guarantee Post Season Win

The next straw for the Emerald City hopeful to clutch at comes from the record of those sides that have done well at home during the regular season. Houston matched Real Salt Lake for the fewest home losses (one) during the regular season. And, RSL did indeed beat the Supporters Shield winning Columbus Crew 1-0 in Sandy, Utah this weekend.

However, the postseason hasn’t always guaranteed those with the best home regular season records success. And this statistic may give Sounders fans more cause for hope than the previous one.

Of the 16 playoff teams with fewest home losses in regular season, seven have lost at least one home playoff game. Two others earned a draw in their only postseason home date. In three of the last four seasons, the team with the fewest regular season home losses has been eliminated from the MLS Cup Playoffs on their home ground.

In 2005, San Jose, the club which was bundled in a removal van and replanted in Houston to be the Dynamo, was held to a first round draw at home, losing on aggregate, 4-2, to Los Angeles.

In 2007 the best home side, Chivas USA, was tied by Kansas City, 0-0, at home, and lost (1-0) on aggregate, and in 2008, Houston and Real Salt Lake each lost just once at home during the season. New York eliminated both the Dynamo (3-0) and RSL (1-0) with wins on the road.

Sounders Away Record among the Best

Having just explained why a good regular season home record is not an indicator for a post season home record, the club’s next paragraph went on to cite Seattle’s good regular season away record. Presumably, they don’t do irony!

But we judge not, so here goes.

Seattle finished with the third-best away record in MLS, at 5-5-5, and did so by winning three of the last four and going 4-1-1 in the final six away games. In addition to these league games, they defeated DC United in the U.S. Open Cup Final at RFK Stadium. Sounders scored 12 goals in the last six road matches and 14 in the last seven, counting the 2-1 Cup Final victory.

In the last six MLS away games the Sounders FC took more points (13) than the first nine road matches (0-4-4), combined. And it may be this last statistic that is the most relevant. Sounders are in form. We believe here, that the more recent the result, the more value it should be given in the pre-match extrapolation game.

Nonetheless, there is enough raw data in all of this to keep everyone’s mind occupied until kick off on Sunday. Whatever happens, someone will find some statistic to claim the result follows a well worn pattern or is the upset of the decade.

There’s a 92.7% chance that our pals at Sounder at Heart will provide the best statistical analysis on the subject. Or is that only for home games?

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