Match Guide for Bores and Nerds – Sounders v Toronto Will Have Massive Impact on Play-off Chances

Friday, August 28, 2009

If Sounders win, their chances of reaching the play-offs will leap from its current 70.5% to a massive 84.2% But a draw will see that percentage drop to the danger territory of 63.9% and defeat to the Canadian visitors will see Sounders chances of making the play-offs dip to below 50% for the first time to 46.8%.

The figures produced by a statisticians’ dream of a web site, Sports Club Stats

Other results can also impact Sounders chances, the most crucial being the televised match between Chicago Fire and DC United. A DC win will drop Sounders chances by 3.2% and a Fire victory raise those chances by 1.6%. Toronto’s current play-off odds are 32.6%.

Would You Believe the Answer is 42?

The home defeat to New England proved to be as disastrous as we predicted, cutting Sounders chances by a whopping 17.1%. It also increased New England’s chances by 22.4%, by far the most impactful result of that weekend, and according to the figures of the entire MLS season. Toronto’s current play-off odds are 32.6%.

The current scenario is that as few as 42 points is more likely than not to see the Sounders safely through to the post season, with those odds rising to 90.4% if they attain 43 points.

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